How do the BAFTAs help oscar-predictions?

I have mentioned it in the Oscar-Podcast but I don’t grow tired of saying it: Oscar season is like the super-sport event for movie fans. The same way you root for your football team to make it all the way until the finals the same way you are rooting for your favorite film (or against your least favorite film).

Aside from the individual guild awards (most notable for the big predictions are producers, directors, screenactors and screenwriters guild) the BAFTA-Awards (The British Academy of Film and Television Arts) are another award show which might affect the Oscar-outcome or at least point towards some possible winners in categories which are still unsure.

So after having spent the night refreshing the awards-sites to find out who won (due to not being able to receive BBC1 or BBC3) here are some quick thoughts about some winners and how this might play into the big Oscar-race (full list of winners can be found over at incontention).

#1 Ben Affleck rocks!

With Argo not being nominated for best director at the Oscars it seemed as if the race had shifted away towards a “Lincoln vs. Life of Pi showdown” – judged too soon! Argo continues to win every imaginable award (major guild awards and so on…) and the BAFTAs were no exception: Editing, Directing and Best Picture all went to Ben Affleck’s film… which means that the Best Director race this year is more open than ever. If Argo were nominated for Best Director, the race would be over already and we would wait for Affleck to take home the gold statue but still all bets are off – and Argo still has great chances of winning the Oscar for best picture!

#2 Emmanuelle Riva shakes up the race

Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) against Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Lining (Playbook)) was a race that went on for some time but with the little love that the Academy had for Zero Dark Thirty Lawrence became more and more the frontrunner… unless there was an upset by a certain Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) who started to get some serious awards buzz which has paid off tonight when Riva took home Best Actress and the race now seems to be between Riva and Lawrence.

#3 Some love for Django

Django went to nab Best Original Screenplay as well as Best Supporting Actor for Christoph Waltz. This is interesting as there yet has to be a clear frontrunner in the Original Screenplay category as well as the Supporting Actor Category. And with the little competition in the Supporting Actor Category a second Oscar for Waltz is not impossible.

#4 Pi and Les Mis for everything technical

Be it special effects, cinematography, production design, sound or makeup the critical darlings are Life of Pi (first two categories) and Les Misérables (the other three).

#5 The usual suspects

Daniel Day Lewis for best actor
Anne Hathaway for best supporting actress
Amour for best foreign film
Searching for Sugar Man for best documentary

Strengthen certain frontrunners (and in the case of the first three listed they are pretty much a lock)

Much more Oscartalk (and hopefully some reviews) very soon!