Oscar Predictions!

Tonight is the Superbowl of movies and the annual “predict the winner not the best movie” is just fun, so here are my predictions, let’s hear yours.

Be aware that I really suck at those predictions and the only time I got most of my votes right was when Slumdog was nominated in most categories.
My failed predicitons include: Best Picture/Best Director split with Avatar/Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds for Cinematography and Original Screenplay (I was really sure about that), Atonement for Best Picture (I mean what the fuck was I thinking?) so these predictions might not be the best to lean towards.

Also check out the biggest possible fuck ups that could happen tonight.

Best Picture:

Ok, this category (and Best Actor) is the easiest to predict. The question is not if King’s Speech will win, but if it will sweep the awards and take some unjustified trophies (cough Best Supporting Actor cough Best Supporting Actress cough) over the more deserving candidates.
A fantastic upset in Wonderland would be the victory of Toy Story 3, I know it won’t happen, but just think for one second that the Academy would decide to reward 15 years of storytelling art that has been unjustly overlooked, by rewarding the third fantastic entry in an outstanding series. Toy Story 3 while not my favourite pick of the year (that would be Banksy’s Exit through the Gift Shop) would be a Oscar winner where I guess very few would have a problem with it winning, but let’s go on and give the Oscar to the by the numbers crowd pleaser… hey you guys remember Shakespeare in Love?

Will win: The King’s Speech
Should win: Toy Story 3
Should have been there: Exit through the Gift Shop

Director:

See above, not to mention that Nolan did not get nominated (again) for his great directorial work. Fincher could pull a very unlikely upset, but given the love for King’s Speech I guess Fincher will have to return with a Benjamin Button movie to get the academy love and stop making critical movies – you know what, screw the that, Fincher keep making more movies like this.

Will win: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
Should have been there: Christopher Nolan (Inception)

Actor in a leading role:

No brainer, but at least Firth’s performance is a great one in The King’s Speech. While the overall product doesn’t really interest me, it is undeniable that Firth elevates the entire movie.

Will win: Colin Firth
Should have been there: Mr. Brainwash

Actress in a leading role:

I seriously hope this won’t be a “Sorry Annete Bening for never giving the Oscar to you”-scene today.

Will win: Natalie Portman

Actor in a supporting role:

John Hawkes delivered one of my favorite performances of the year, but this night should belong to Bale. He should have it in the bag. Bale has won most of the critical awards. Unless there is a King’s Speech upset, he should definitely get the recognition he deserves, after all – he’s a fucking amateur!

Will win: Christian Bale
Should have been there: Ken

Actress in a supporting role:

The wild card of the evening, here is much that can happen, especially that it is one of the few categories where True Grit has a chance to grab an Oscar and with the love True Grit is getting (pushing out Nolan and grabbing 10 nominations) it might be possible that Steinfeld upsets this. But I love Leo’s performance in The Fighter and I just hope that she and Amy Adams won’t split the Fighter votes.

Will win: Melissa Leo
Could win: Hailee Steinfeld
Should have been there: Mila Kunis and Barbara Hershey (Black Swan),
Chloë Moretz (Kick-Ass)

Adapted Screenplay:

For some reasons the Oscars mostly manage to neatly split the two frontrunners in the screenplay category so that the second place at least gets a screenplay trophy (Milk/Slumdog) or the second place gets overlooked in a move that few saw coming (Precious winning over Up in the Air – not to say for political reasons, but for political reasons). So this should be The Social Network’s trophy. I doubt True Grit will surprise and Toy Story has no chance here as well.

Will win: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network

Original Screenplay:

Sr…. oh yes, The King’s Speech… like usual

Will win: The King’s Speech
Should win: Inception

Cinematography:

True Grit, this category is one of the most likeliest for True Grit otherwise it will go out empty (with 10 nominiations) so apart from the fact that it looks gorgeous, it should be a category where True Grit has a chance to not completely loose (unless it surprisingly snags the audio from Inception).

Will win: True Grit
Should win: Black Swan

Editing:

If King’s Speech gets the Oscar here, then it’s another “It’s best picture so hand in the other awards as well”. The editing was pivotal to the Social Network with the neverending time-jumps, so I hope it goes to Network since Inception has been overlooked.

Will win: The Social Network
Should have been there: Inception, Life Remote Control

Sound Mixing:

BRRRRRRRMMMMMMMM!!!!!

Will win: Inception
Could win: True Grit or Salt (sleeper surprise)
Will burn down the Kodak theatre if it goes to: The King’s Speech

Sound Editing:
BRRRRRRRMMMMMMMM!!!!!

Will win: Inception
Could win: True Grit

Art Direction:

This one is a tough call, but I’ll go with the frontrunner and assume that the room where Firth and Rush had their lessons, plus the period peace will help King’s Speech.

Will win: The King’s Speech
Should have been there: Tron: Legacy

Costume Design:
I go with the most obvious one:

Will win: Alice in Wonderland
Should win: everything else

Makeup:
Haven’t seen any of the three, so I go with the current consensus.

Will win: Barney’s Version

Special Effects:

No-brainer.

Will win: Inception

Foreign language film:
This year I’ve been lazy on the foreign film front, only seeing Of Gods and Men which didn’t get nominated. This category is often decided by random chance or by the film that is the least offensive (Waltz with Bashir and Entre les Murs loosing to departures). I’m just going with the one that has had the most media attention:

Will win: Biutiful
Could win: no idea

Music (Score):
I don’t think any of the soundtracks are that great, I (naturally) enjoyed Inception, Dragon has the standard fantasy fare and I don’t remember much of 127 hours, so once again I’m lazy,

Will win: The King’s Speech
Should have been there: Toy Story 3, Tron: Legacy

Music (Song):
I really don’t care, the least annoying song to me is If I rise, seeing that 127 hours has no chance in the big categories it might score here. Country Song makes me run amok and We belong together from Toy Story 3 bothers me even more than “Down to Earth” from Wall-E. Still I’m going with some Pixar love.

Will win: Toy Story 3
Could win: 127 hours
Should not win: Country Song

Animated feature:

Is that a question?

Will win: Toy Story 3

Documentary:

I have a lot of catching up to do and I’m looking really forward to Restrepo. Right now I just have to be loyal to my favourite, even if he’s not allowed to attend the premiere:

Will win: Exit Through the Gift Shop

So, that makes the categories where I can act as if I understand anything, so now about the ones I just copy paste the usual predictions:

Documentary short:
Strangers no more

Short film (animated):
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

Short film (live action):
God of Love

What are your predictions?